source · blog
Exploring How AI Will Impact the Economy
src_bridgewater_ai_economy_impact
https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/exploring-how-ai-will-impact-the-economy
authors: Karen Karniol-Tambour, Josh Moriarty
published: 2023-10-02
accessed: 2026-04-19
Notes
Research note from Bridgewater Associates. Above the blog prior (0.35) because it is signed institutional research from a major macro firm with visible source citations, but not a peer-reviewed or primary-data artifact.
Intake provenance
- method
- httpx
- tool
- afls-ingest/0.0.1
- git sha
- 4d098737f648
- at
- 2026-04-19T20:50:27.732941Z
- sha256
- 9ffd8831f6cf…
Evidence from this source (5)
- weight0.70
method: expert_estimate · locator: The Task-Based Approach Underlying the Research Is Inherently Uncertain section
“an occupation moving from the 25th to 75th percentile of exposure to the technology was associated with declines in within-industry employment share of 9-18% and wage declines of 8-14%; the same move for software was about half as impactful”
- weight0.75
method: triangulation · locator: There Is Tremendous Uncertainty Around How Large the Impacts of AI Will Be section
“McKinsey & Company anticipates a 0.2-3.3 percentage point annual boost to productivity growth from automation through 2040... Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.3-2.9 percentage point increase in annual productivity growth from AI”
- weight0.70
method: expert_estimate · locator: Most Studies Estimate Peak Impact Being Some Years Away section
“Historically, general-purpose technologies that can be implemented widely across an economy—like electricity or computers—had a measurable impact on productivity around one to three decades after the technological capability emerged.”
- weight0.80
method: direct_measurement · locator: Software Development section
“professional software developers granted access to GitHub Copilot completed an assigned task 56% faster than those who weren't. Of developers who use Copilot, the tool writes 46% of their code on average”
- weight0.65
method: journalistic_report · locator: Contact Centers section, employment discussion
“This data shows a remarkably steep drop in employment (~10%) over the last 18 months as AI tools have been integrated into call center workstreams”