Exploring How AI Will Impact the Economy

Notes

Research note from Bridgewater Associates. Above the blog prior (0.35) because it is signed institutional research from a major macro firm with visible source citations, but not a peer-reviewed or primary-data artifact.

Evidence from this source (5)

• CDApplying the same O*NET task-exposure methodology to past technology waves yiel… support
  weight

  0.70

  method: expert_estimate · locator: The Task-Based Approach Underlying the Research Is Inherently Uncertain section

  “an occupation moving from the 25th to 75th percentile of exposure to the technology was associated with declines in within-industry employment share of 9-18% and wage declines of 8-14%; the same move for software was about half as impactful”

• CDPublished bottom-up task-based forecasts of AI's annual productivity growth con… support
  weight

  0.75

  method: triangulation · locator: There Is Tremendous Uncertainty Around How Large the Impacts of AI Will Be section

  “McKinsey & Company anticipates a 0.2-3.3 percentage point annual boost to productivity growth from automation through 2040... Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.3-2.9 percentage point increase in annual productivity growth from AI”

• CDHistorically, general-purpose technologies such as electricity and computers pr… support
  weight

  0.70

  method: expert_estimate · locator: Most Studies Estimate Peak Impact Being Some Years Away section

  “Historically, general-purpose technologies that can be implemented widely across an economy—like electricity or computers—had a measurable impact on productivity around one to three decades after the technological capability emerged.”

• CDIn a controlled study, professional software developers granted access to GitHu… support
  weight

  0.80

  method: direct_measurement · locator: Software Development section

  “professional software developers granted access to GitHub Copilot completed an assigned task 56% faster than those who weren't. Of developers who use Copilot, the tool writes 46% of their code on average”

• CDUS employment at dedicated call center companies fell approximately 10% over th… qualify
  weight

  0.65

  method: journalistic_report · locator: Contact Centers section, employment discussion

  “This data shows a remarkably steep drop in employment (~10%) over the last 18 months as AI tools have been integrated into call center workstreams”