descriptive claim
Applying the same O*NET task-exposure methodology to past technology waves yielded markedly different labor outcomes for equivalent exposure levels: moving an occupation from the 25th to 75th percentile of exposure was associated with 9-18% within-industry employment share declines and 8-14% wage declines for robotics, versus 7-11% employment share declines and 2-6% wage declines for software.
desc_task_exposure_heterogeneous_labor_impact
confidence 0.80
Evidence (1)
supports (1)
- Exploring How AI Will Impact the Economy expert_estimateweight0.70
locator: The Task-Based Approach Underlying the Research Is Inherently Uncertain section
“an occupation moving from the 25th to 75th percentile of exposure to the technology was associated with declines in within-industry employment share of 9-18% and wage declines of 8-14%; the same move for software was about half as impactful”