descriptive claim
Published bottom-up task-based forecasts of AI's annual productivity growth contribution span roughly 0.2 to 3.3 percentage points (McKinsey through 2040, with 0.1-0.6pp attributed to generative AI) and 0.3 to 2.9 percentage points (Goldman Sachs during the adoption period), against a baseline US annual productivity growth of ~1.5%.
desc_ai_productivity_forecast_range_wide
confidence 0.85
Evidence (1)
supports (1)
- Exploring How AI Will Impact the Economy triangulationweight0.75
locator: There Is Tremendous Uncertainty Around How Large the Impacts of AI Will Be section
“McKinsey & Company anticipates a 0.2-3.3 percentage point annual boost to productivity growth from automation through 2040... Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.3-2.9 percentage point increase in annual productivity growth from AI”