DeepSeek-V3's training cost is on the expected algorithmic-efficiency cost-reduction curve (~4x/year), not a discontinuous breakthrough: it produced a model roughly equivalent to US frontier models from 7-10 months earlier at a proportionally lower cost.

supports (2)

• SOn DeepSeek and Export Controls expert_estimate
  weight

  0.75

  locator: DeepSeek's Models section

  “DeepSeek-V3 is not a unique breakthrough or something that fundamentally changes the economics of LLM's; it's an expected point on an ongoing cost reduction curve.”

• SOn DeepSeek and Export Controls expert_estimate
  weight

  0.80

  locator: DeepSeek's Models section, paragraph on cost curve

  “DeepSeek produced a model close to the performance of US models 7-10 months older, for a good deal less cost (but not anywhere near the ratios people have suggested).”