Superintelligence Strategy: Expert Version

Notes

arXiv preprint, cs.CY. Strategy/policy argument by three prominent authors (CAIS director, former Google CEO, Scale AI CEO) rather than empirical research; slightly below paper prior (0.82) because claims are framework-level and advocacy-adjacent rather than measured.

Evidence from this source (4)

• CDThe authors assert that, given the relative ease of sabotaging a destabilizing… support
  weight

  0.90

  method: expert_estimate · locator: Abstract

  “Given the relative ease of sabotaging a destabilizing AI project -- through interventions ranging from covert cyberattacks to potential kinetic strikes on datacenters -- MAIM already describes the strategic picture AI superpowers find themselves in.”

• CDThe authors outline a three-part superintelligence strategy for states consisti… support
  weight

  0.95

  method: expert_estimate · locator: Abstract

  “Taken together, the three-part framework of deterrence, nonproliferation, and competitiveness outlines a robust strategy to superintelligence in the years ahead.”

• CDHendrycks, Schmidt, and Wang propose Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM) as a… support
  weight

  0.95

  method: expert_estimate · locator: Abstract

  “We introduce the concept of Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM): a deterrence regime resembling nuclear mutual assured destruction (MAD) where any state's aggressive bid for unilateral AI dominance is met with preventive sabotage by rivals.”

• CDThe authors assert that widespread proliferation of capable AI hackers and viro… support
  weight

  0.85

  method: expert_estimate · locator: Abstract

  “widespread proliferation of capable AI hackers and virologists would lower barriers for rogue actors to cause catastrophe.”