SemiAnalysis --- compute, capex, and datacenter analysis

Notes

Industry-adjacent analysis. Strong on supply-chain specifics; not peer-reviewed.

Warrants from this source (5)

• CDUS intelligence and defense cloud workloads are concentrated across four hypers… support
  weight

  0.70

  method: triangulation · locator: Hyperscaler capex and share coverage, 2024

• CDFrontier AI performance scales with compute and capex. support
  weight

  0.70

  method: triangulation · locator: capex and cluster analyses

• CDAmortized hardware and energy cost of flagship training runs has grown ~2.4x an… support
  weight

  0.70

  method: journalistic_report · locator: GPT-4 architecture/cost posts, 2023-2024

• CDOver 90% of leading-edge (<10nm, effectively 100% of <5nm) logic fabrication ca… support
  weight

  0.75

  method: journalistic_report · locator: HBM supply/demand coverage, 2024

• CDThe US currently leads China in frontier AI by roughly 6-18 months. qualify
  weight

  0.55

  method: journalistic_report · locator: Chinese domestic chip progress coverage